Islamic Emirate: A Pakistani Roulette, Pakistani- brokered peace talks

 

Murree, venue for “Pakistani- brokered peace talks” (Image Dawn)

Dr. Hameedullah Zabuli

Recently Pakistan has expended a lot of political capital into kick-starting peace talks between the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and officials of the Kabul administration. Simultaneously with the Qatar based Islamic Emirate’s official Political Office’s efforts, Pakistani officials have tried in vain to jump-start their own twin-tracked political process for negotiating an end to the Afghan Jihad.

Having failed to convince the Islamic Emirate’s leadership to participate in peace talks under their auspices, Pakistani military authorities instead resorted to presenting former or current officials of the Islamic Emirate to talk with the Kabul administration in their personal capacity. Their efforts first led to talks between Afghan officials and some members of the Taliban (in their personal capacity) to meet in the Chinese city of Urumqi. This ploy soon backfired and invited criticism that Pakistan had only delivered ‘mid-level’ officials with no say in the overall decision making process.

After months of efforts and having missed their own declared deadline for peace talks by several months, Pakistan then resorted to the same ploy of presenting individual Taliban members in their personal capacity to speak with Kabul administration’s officials. When the dust settles, the much hailed talks between Taliban officials and Ghani-administration officials in Islamabad will be revealed as nothing more than Pakistan delivering a few individuals from the Islamic Emirate to speak in their personal capacity (much like how Mullah Barader was required some months ago).

While Pakistan has compelling reasons to be seen as a facilitator of peace talks, yet in reality, it is playing a dangerous roulette. It is basing its strategic policy on a fickle alliance with a weak and short-tempered government that is appeasing the Pakistani establishment for a specific and short-term goal. The Kabul administration is too divided and fractured to capitalize on any peace initiatives. This is the main reason why it has thus far avoided the genuine opportunity for peace talks presented by the Qatar-based Islamic Emirate’s Political Office. Moreover, no sooner will the Kabul administration have achieved their goal of purporting to be interested in peace talks than the Indian lobby in Kabul will rally together to once again tilt their administration towards their natural alliance with India.

Such a tactical maneuver offers several benefits for the Kabul administration. Firstly, as stated above, through it the Kabul administration hopes to be seen as genuinely interested in peace talks to the Afghan populace. Secondly the administration can argue that the Taliban are nothing more than a Pakistani proxy. Furthermore, through this strategy the Kabul administration hopes that Pakistan will alienate the last political force in Afghanistan that genuinely wants cordial relations with all its neighbors. Having achieved these objectives, and being too inept to capitalize on any genuine opportunity for peace, the Kabul administration would likely pronounce the Pakistani-facilitated peace process a dead end and proceed with their natural inclination towards an Indian-tilted alliance.

For Pakistan however, this high stakes gambit could prove catastrophic. Its failure to persuade the Islamic Emirate on peace talks has already shown the limits of its influence over the Taliban leadership. In order to compensate for this shortcoming the Pakistani establishment has had to rely on ‘mid-level’ Taliban officials who can only speak in their personal capacity and have limited decision making capacities. The fact that the official Islamic Emirate leadership officially repudiated these talks handed another blow to their political prestige. China, being wary of this ploy in the previous round, likely asked for the subsequent round to be held in Pakistan itself. Admittedly when political actors live in exile in another’s country then they can be compelled to attend such meetings. However, any meaningful ground breaking change in Afghanistan requires much more than such mop up meetings. Unless there is a consensus within the Emirate’s members, including between its leaders and grass roots members, there can be no forced negotiations to the conflict. At most some leaders will be jailed and others forced underground. However the hatred it breeds will have long-term repercussions far outweighing any possible short-term political benefits.

Pakistan needs to carefully examine the political calculus that its policy entails. Any minor oversight could trigger changes that might prove impossible to undo.

End

The above is a posting from Dr. Hameedullah Zabuli, Islamic Emirate (Afghanistan)

Links

“The muddle of Murree: Taliban talks more hype than hope as statement is released”

https://activist1.wordpress.com/2015/07/08/the-muddle-of-murree-taliban-talks-more-hype-than-hope-as-statement-is-released/

“Afghanistan: Talks with the Taliban in Pakistan… does the Taliban know?”

https://activist1.wordpress.com/2015/07/07/afghanistan-talks-with-the-taliban-in-pakistan-does-the-taliban-know/

Carol Anne Grayson is an independent writer/researcher on global health/human rights and is Executive Producer of the Oscar nominated, Incident in New Baghdad . She is a Registered Mental Nurse with a Masters in Gender Culture and Development. Carol was awarded the ESRC, Michael Young Prize for Research 2009, and the COTT ‘Action = Life’ Human Rights Award’ for “upholding truth and justice”. She is also a survivor of US “collateral damage”.